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Abstract
This study aims to analyze the impact of natural disasters, food production, and the exchange rate on food inflation in Indonesia. Employing a quantitative approach, the research utilizes the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The Bound Test results indicate a cointegrating relationship among the variables, suggesting the existence of a long-run relationship. Short-run estimations reveal that food inflation is significantly influenced by its values from the preceding three periods, as well as natural disasters at the first lag. Conversely, food production and the exchange rate do not have a significant short-term effect. In the long term, only natural disasters significantly affect food inflation
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References
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- Beirne, J., Dafermos, Y., Kriwoluzky, A., Renzhi, N., Volz, U., & Wittich, J. (2024). Weather-related disasters and inflation in the euro area. Journal of Banking and Finance, 157, 107298. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107298
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- Sumba, J. O., Nyabuto, K. O., & Mugambi, P. J. (2024). Exchange rate and inflation dynamics in Kenya: Does the threshold level matter? Heliyon, 10(8), e35726. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e35726
References
Badan Pusat Statistik. Bps.go.id. https://www.bps.go.id.
Beirne, J., Dafermos, Y., Kriwoluzky, A., Renzhi, N., Volz, U., & Wittich, J. (2024). Weather-related disasters and inflation in the euro area. Journal of Banking and Finance, 157, 107298. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107298
Chavleishvili, S., & Moench, E. (2024). Natural disasters as macroeconomic tail risks. Journal of Econometrics, 251(1), Article 105914. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2024.105914
Duprey, T., & Fernandes, V. (2025). Natural disasters and inflation in Canada (Staff Analytical Note No. 2025-8). Bank of Canada. https://doi.org/10.34989/san-2025-8
Gautier, E., Grosse-Steffen, C., Marx, M., & Vertier, P. (2023). Decomposing the inflation response to weather-related disasters (Working Paper No. 935, updated May 2024). Banque de France.
Garzón, A. J., & Hierro, L. A. (2022). Inflation, oil prices and exchange rates: The Euro’s dampening effect. Journal of Policy Modeling, 44(3), 605–620. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2021.12.001
Hallegatte, S., Jooste, C., & McIsaac, F. (2022). Modeling the macroeconomic consequences of natural disasters: Capital stock, recovery dynamics, and monetary policy (Policy Research Working Paper No. 9943). World Bank.
Kementerian Koordinator Bidang Pangan. (2025). Antara bencana, lingkungan, dan pangan. https://kemenkopangan.go.id/detail-opini/antara-bencana-lingkungan-dan-pangan
Kementerian Perdagangan Republik Indonesia. (2024). Nilai tukar mata uang asing terhadap rupiah. Pusat Data dan Sistem Informasi Perdagangan. https://satudata.kemendag.go.id/data-informasi/perdagangan-dalam-negeri/nilai-tukar
Kementerian Pertanian. (2024). Impor komoditi pertanian berdasarkan per HS – Subsektor: Tanaman pangan. Pusat Data dan Sistem Informasi Pertanian. https://app3.pertanian.go.id/eksim/hasilImporHs.php
Li, C., Zhang, X., & He, J. (2023). Impact of climate change on inflation in 26 selected countries. Sustainability, 15(17), 13108. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151713108
Malec, K., Maitah, M., & Fulnečková, P. R. (2024). Inflation, exchange rate, and economic growth in Ethiopia: A time series analysis. International Review of Economics & Finance, 90, Article 103561. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2024.103561
Maulana, R. A., Sarfiah, S. N., & Prasetyanto, P. K. (n.d.). Pengaruh ekspor, suku bunga dan nilai tukar terhadap inflasi di Indonesia. DINAMIC: Directory Journal of Economic Volume 2 Nomor 3
Parker, M. (2018). The impact of disasters on inflation. Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, 2(1):21–48.
Pratikto, R., & Ikhsan, M. (2016). Inflasi makanan dan implikasinya terhadap kebijakan moneter di Indonesia. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia, 17(1), 58–74. https://doi.org/10.21002/jepi.v17i1.658
Rahmayanti, A. P., Fauzi, M., & Muzdalifah. (2022). Neraca ketersediaan beras pasca bencana banjir tahun 2021 di Kabupaten Banjar. Frontier Agribisnis: Jurnal Tugas Akhir Mahasiswa (JTAM).
Sumba, J. O., Nyabuto, K. O., & Mugambi, P. J. (2024). Exchange rate and inflation dynamics in Kenya: Does the threshold level matter? Heliyon, 10(8), e35726. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e35726