Main Article Content
Abstract
This study aims to estimate the financial difficulties that may be experienced by PT Sepatu Bata Tbk, compare six bankruptcy prediction methods, namely Altman, Springate, Zmijewski, Grover, Ohlson, and Taffler, and find the accuracy level of the predictive model. The research uses a quantitative approach by utilizing an independent sample t-test to detect comparisons between bankruptcy prediction methods from the company's secondary data. The results of the study show that the Altman method successfully detected the existence of financial distress of the company, namely in 2020, 2022, and 2023, while the rest of the time the company was still safe and entered the gray area, the Springate method predicts that for 12 years from 2012 to 2023 the company was trapped in the threat of bankruptcy due to financial distress, the Grover method found the fact that throughout the year from 2012 to 2023 the company experienced financial difficulties, Zmijewski's method proves that companies are experiencing financial distress only in 2023, Ohlson's method detects that companies are still in good health for 12 years from 2012 to 2023, and the Taffler model predicts that companies have experienced various conditions over the past 12 years and are only threatened with bankruptcy in 2020 and 2021. The Taffler method showed the highest accuracy rate of 83%, followed by the Altman and Zmijewski methods at 75%, Ohlson at 65%, and Springate and Grover both recorded an accuracy rate of 33%.
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References
- Agostini, M., & Agostini, M. (2018). Corporate Financial Distress: A Roadmap of the Academic Literature Concerning its Definition and Tools of Evaluation. Corporate Financial Distress: Going Concern Evaluation in Both International and US Contexts, 5–47.
- Anggraini, M. (2020). Pengaruh Kualitas Produk terhadap Keputusan Pembelian pada Toko Sepatu Bata MTC. GIANT Panam Pekanbaru Menurut Ekonomi Syariah. Skripsi Sarjana, Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau.
- Ariks, M. Y., & Mulyanto, F. S. M. (2021). Analisis Kinerja Keuangan dengan Metode Altman Z-Score Pada PT. Sepatu Bata, Tbk.
- Ashraf, S., GS Félix, E., & Serrasqueiro, Z. (2019). Do traditional financial distress prediction models predict the early warning signs of financial distress? Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 12(2), 55.
- Berk, J. B., Harford, J. V. T., DeMarzo, P. M., Stangeland, D., & Marosi, A. (2019). Fundamentals of Corporate Finance. Pearson Education Canada.
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- Brigham, E. F., & Houston, J. F. (2019). Fundamentals of Financial Management (15 Edition). Cengage Learning.
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- Chrisantha, F., & Suhartono, S. (2022). Financial Distress sebagai Determinan, Pemediasi dan Pemoderasi dari Praktik Manajemen Laba. Jurnal Bina Akuntansi, 9(2), 126–149.
- CNN Indonesia. (2024). Fakta-fakta Penutupan Pabrik Bata hingga PHK 200 Orang Karyawan. Retrieved June 1, 2024, from https://www.cnnindonesia.com/ekonomi/20240509102539-92-1095692/fakta-fakta-penutupan-pabrik-bata-hingga-phk-200-orang-karyawan
- Efendi, A. I., Tato, M. S., & Ni’mah, M. (2022). Analisis Prediksi Kebangkrutan Dengan Menggunakan Metode Altman Z-Score “Studi Kasus Pada PT. Sepatu Bata Tbk.” Economics And Business Management Journal (EBMJ), 1(03), 161–168.
- Frost, J. (2021). Independent Samples T Test: Definition, Using & Interpreting. Retrieved May 15, 2022, from https://statisticsbyjim.com/hypothesis-testing/independent-samples-t-test/
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- Gaughan, P. A. (2017). Mergers, Acquisitions, and Corporate Restructurings. Wiley.
- Gottardo, P., & Moisello, A. M. (2018). Capital Structure, Earnings Management, and Risk of Financial Distress: A Comparative Analysis of Family and Non-family Firms. Springer International Publishing.
- Huang, Y.-P., & Yen, M.-F. (2019). A new perspective of performance comparison among machine learning algorithms for financial distress prediction. Applied Soft Computing, 83, 105663.
- Keasey, K., & Watson, R. (2019). Financial distress prediction models: a review of their usefulness 1. Risk Management, 35–48.
- Maharani, P., & Oselbi, R. (2022). Analisis Z-Score Pada PT Sepatu Bata Tbk Tahun 2015-2020. J-CEKI: Jurnal Cendekia Ilmiah, 1(5), 533–538.
- Makatita, R. F. (2016). Pentingnya Kinerja Keuangan Dalam Mengatasi Kesulitan Keuangan Perusahaan: Suatu Tinjauan Teoritis. Journal of Management: Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), 2(1), 137–150.
- Menne, F. (2023). Manajemen Keuangan. Malang, Jawa Timur: PT Literasi Nusantara Abadi Grup.
- Mokoginta, D. D., & Agung, T. R. (2022). Pengawasan Manajemen Risiko dan Financial Distress dalam Agency Theory. Pengawasan Manajemen Risiko Dan Financial Distress Dalam Agency Theory, 32(7), 1675–1687.
- Nida, A. M., Widuri, T., & Arida, R. W. (2024). Analisa Komparasi Prediksi Financial Distress dengan Model Grover dan Ohlson pada Perusahaan Sub Sektor Alas Kaki yang Terdaftar di Bei Tahun 2017-2021. Musytari: Neraca Manajemen, Akuntansi, Dan Ekonomi, 4(4), 41–51.
- Nugroho, N. P. (2024). Alasan Perusahaan Tutup Pabrik Sepatu Bata di Purwakarta. Retrieved May 21, 2024, from https://bisnis.tempo.co/read/1865820/alasan-perusahaan-tutup-pabrik-sepatu-bata-di-purwakarta
- PT Sepatu Bata. (2024). Bata di Indonesia. Retrieved June 2, 2024, from https://www.bata.com/id/companyprofile.html
- Radovanovic, J., & Haas, C. (2023). The evaluation of bankruptcy prediction models based on socio-economic costs. Expert Systems with Applications, 227, 120275.
- Ramli, R. R., & Djumena, E. (2024). Pabrik Sepatu Bata Tutup, Pengusaha: Pabrik Ada di Daerah dengan UMK Tinggi. Retrieved June 1, 2024, from https://money.kompas.com/read/2024/05/13/194000226/pabrik-sepatu-bata-tutup-pengusaha--pabrik-ada-di-daerah-dengan-umk-tinggi-
- Rawal, A., Bhimavarapu, V. M., Sidhu, A. V., & Rastogi, S. (2023). Does financial distress induce companies to restructure their financing mix? Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences.
- Sazly, S., & Al Rasyid, H. (2024). Springate S-Score Model to Predict Financial Distress, the Last Stage to Corporate Bankruptcy: A Case Study of PT Sepatu Bata Tbk. Jurnal Comparative: Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 6(2), 368–380.
- Valcu, C. (2022). Influence of some Characteristics of Listed Companies on Fiscal Pressure. Audit Financiar, 20(167), 525–540.
- Watts, A. L., Lane, S. P., Bonifay, W., Steinley, D., & Meyer, F. A. C. (2020). Building Theories on Top of, and Not Independent of, Statistical Models: The Case of the p-factor. Psychological Inquiry, 31(4), 310–320. https://doi.org/10.1080/1047840X.2020.1853476
- Widhiadnyana, I. K., & Ratnadi, N. M. D. (2019). The impact of managerial ownership, institutional ownership, proportion of independent commissioner, and intellectual capital on financial distress. Journal of Economics, Business & Accountancy Ventura, 21(3), 351.
References
Agostini, M., & Agostini, M. (2018). Corporate Financial Distress: A Roadmap of the Academic Literature Concerning its Definition and Tools of Evaluation. Corporate Financial Distress: Going Concern Evaluation in Both International and US Contexts, 5–47.
Anggraini, M. (2020). Pengaruh Kualitas Produk terhadap Keputusan Pembelian pada Toko Sepatu Bata MTC. GIANT Panam Pekanbaru Menurut Ekonomi Syariah. Skripsi Sarjana, Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Islam Negeri Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau.
Ariks, M. Y., & Mulyanto, F. S. M. (2021). Analisis Kinerja Keuangan dengan Metode Altman Z-Score Pada PT. Sepatu Bata, Tbk.
Ashraf, S., GS Félix, E., & Serrasqueiro, Z. (2019). Do traditional financial distress prediction models predict the early warning signs of financial distress? Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 12(2), 55.
Berk, J. B., Harford, J. V. T., DeMarzo, P. M., Stangeland, D., & Marosi, A. (2019). Fundamentals of Corporate Finance. Pearson Education Canada.
Bloomberg Technoz. (2024). Terungkap 3 Fakta Sepatu Bata yang Tutup Pabrik di Purwakarta. Retrieved June 12, 2024, from https://www.bloombergtechnoz.com/detail-news/37117/terungkap-3-fakta-sepatu-bata-yang-tutup-pabrik-di-purwakarta
Brigham, E. F., & Houston, J. F. (2019). Fundamentals of Financial Management (15 Edition). Cengage Learning.
Budi, C. S., & Dillak, V. J. (2022). Financial Distress Pada Perusahaan Property Dan Realestate Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2016-2019. E-Jurnal Ekonomi Dan Bisnis Universitas Udayana, 11(03), 295.
Chrisantha, F., & Suhartono, S. (2022). Financial Distress sebagai Determinan, Pemediasi dan Pemoderasi dari Praktik Manajemen Laba. Jurnal Bina Akuntansi, 9(2), 126–149.
CNN Indonesia. (2024). Fakta-fakta Penutupan Pabrik Bata hingga PHK 200 Orang Karyawan. Retrieved June 1, 2024, from https://www.cnnindonesia.com/ekonomi/20240509102539-92-1095692/fakta-fakta-penutupan-pabrik-bata-hingga-phk-200-orang-karyawan
Efendi, A. I., Tato, M. S., & Ni’mah, M. (2022). Analisis Prediksi Kebangkrutan Dengan Menggunakan Metode Altman Z-Score “Studi Kasus Pada PT. Sepatu Bata Tbk.” Economics And Business Management Journal (EBMJ), 1(03), 161–168.
Frost, J. (2021). Independent Samples T Test: Definition, Using & Interpreting. Retrieved May 15, 2022, from https://statisticsbyjim.com/hypothesis-testing/independent-samples-t-test/
Gading, S. (2024). Terkuak Penyebab Bata Tutup Pabrik hingga Nasib Karyawan Terdampak. Retrieved June 1, 2024, from https://finance.detik.com/industri/d-7331942/terkuak-penyebab-bata-tutup-pabrik-hingga-nasib-karyawan-terdampak
Gaughan, P. A. (2017). Mergers, Acquisitions, and Corporate Restructurings. Wiley.
Gottardo, P., & Moisello, A. M. (2018). Capital Structure, Earnings Management, and Risk of Financial Distress: A Comparative Analysis of Family and Non-family Firms. Springer International Publishing.
Huang, Y.-P., & Yen, M.-F. (2019). A new perspective of performance comparison among machine learning algorithms for financial distress prediction. Applied Soft Computing, 83, 105663.
Keasey, K., & Watson, R. (2019). Financial distress prediction models: a review of their usefulness 1. Risk Management, 35–48.
Maharani, P., & Oselbi, R. (2022). Analisis Z-Score Pada PT Sepatu Bata Tbk Tahun 2015-2020. J-CEKI: Jurnal Cendekia Ilmiah, 1(5), 533–538.
Makatita, R. F. (2016). Pentingnya Kinerja Keuangan Dalam Mengatasi Kesulitan Keuangan Perusahaan: Suatu Tinjauan Teoritis. Journal of Management: Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), 2(1), 137–150.
Menne, F. (2023). Manajemen Keuangan. Malang, Jawa Timur: PT Literasi Nusantara Abadi Grup.
Mokoginta, D. D., & Agung, T. R. (2022). Pengawasan Manajemen Risiko dan Financial Distress dalam Agency Theory. Pengawasan Manajemen Risiko Dan Financial Distress Dalam Agency Theory, 32(7), 1675–1687.
Nida, A. M., Widuri, T., & Arida, R. W. (2024). Analisa Komparasi Prediksi Financial Distress dengan Model Grover dan Ohlson pada Perusahaan Sub Sektor Alas Kaki yang Terdaftar di Bei Tahun 2017-2021. Musytari: Neraca Manajemen, Akuntansi, Dan Ekonomi, 4(4), 41–51.
Nugroho, N. P. (2024). Alasan Perusahaan Tutup Pabrik Sepatu Bata di Purwakarta. Retrieved May 21, 2024, from https://bisnis.tempo.co/read/1865820/alasan-perusahaan-tutup-pabrik-sepatu-bata-di-purwakarta
PT Sepatu Bata. (2024). Bata di Indonesia. Retrieved June 2, 2024, from https://www.bata.com/id/companyprofile.html
Radovanovic, J., & Haas, C. (2023). The evaluation of bankruptcy prediction models based on socio-economic costs. Expert Systems with Applications, 227, 120275.
Ramli, R. R., & Djumena, E. (2024). Pabrik Sepatu Bata Tutup, Pengusaha: Pabrik Ada di Daerah dengan UMK Tinggi. Retrieved June 1, 2024, from https://money.kompas.com/read/2024/05/13/194000226/pabrik-sepatu-bata-tutup-pengusaha--pabrik-ada-di-daerah-dengan-umk-tinggi-
Rawal, A., Bhimavarapu, V. M., Sidhu, A. V., & Rastogi, S. (2023). Does financial distress induce companies to restructure their financing mix? Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences.
Sazly, S., & Al Rasyid, H. (2024). Springate S-Score Model to Predict Financial Distress, the Last Stage to Corporate Bankruptcy: A Case Study of PT Sepatu Bata Tbk. Jurnal Comparative: Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 6(2), 368–380.
Valcu, C. (2022). Influence of some Characteristics of Listed Companies on Fiscal Pressure. Audit Financiar, 20(167), 525–540.
Watts, A. L., Lane, S. P., Bonifay, W., Steinley, D., & Meyer, F. A. C. (2020). Building Theories on Top of, and Not Independent of, Statistical Models: The Case of the p-factor. Psychological Inquiry, 31(4), 310–320. https://doi.org/10.1080/1047840X.2020.1853476
Widhiadnyana, I. K., & Ratnadi, N. M. D. (2019). The impact of managerial ownership, institutional ownership, proportion of independent commissioner, and intellectual capital on financial distress. Journal of Economics, Business & Accountancy Ventura, 21(3), 351.