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Abstract

Fenomena perubahan iklim, yang dipicu oleh meningkatnya emisi karbon dioksida (CO₂), telah muncul sebagai dilema global yang semakin mendesak, terutama dalam konteks inisiatif yang bertujuan meningkatkan kemajuan ekonomi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menyelidiki faktor-faktor penentu yang berkontribusi terhadap emisi karbon dalam konteks Indonesia. Data yang digunakan terdiri dari deret waktu yang mencakup dari tahun 1970 hingga 2023. Menggunakan kerangka model Kurva Kuznets Lingkungan (EKC), CO₂ berfungsi sebagai variabel dependen, sedangkan Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB), Investasi Langsung Asing (FDI), dan konsumsi energi dianggap sebagai variabel independen. Pendekatan metodologis yang diadopsi adalah teknik Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), yang memfasilitasi estimasi efek jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa PDB memberikan dampak negatif dan signifikan secara statistik pada emisi CO₂ dalam jangka pendek; Namun, hubungan ini menjadi positif dalam jangka panjang. FDI menunjukkan pengaruh positif namun tidak signifikan secara statistik di kedua kerangka temporal. Konsumsi energi secara konsisten menunjukkan efek positif dan signifikan pada emisi CO₂, menggarisbawahi ketergantungan pada sumber energi bahan bakar fosil. Hasilnya menekankan kebutuhan kritis untuk penerapan kebijakan transisi energi bersih untuk mengurangi emisi sambil memastikan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkelanjutan dalam jangka panjang.

Keywords

ARDL Emisi Karbon Konsumsi Energi Fosil Kuznets

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