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Abstract
Political events that happen tend to affect the stability and the condition of the economy. One of the most important political events that happens in a country is a presidential election as it can greatly affect the direction of that nation for the next few years. This research analyses the effect of Indonesia’s 2024 presidential election season on the stock price of Indonesia’s leading firms (LQ45). By using the paired sample t-test method to analyse three events surrounding the elections namely, the registration of the candidates, the election, and the announcement of the ruling from the election dispute, this research found that the registration of certain candidates negatively affect stock prices while another candidate registration has no significant effect on stock prices. Meanwhile, the election itself is found to have a positive effect on stock prices, while the ruling of the lawsuit does not affect stock prices. This shows that certain political events do affect stock prices while on other events, the market does not react significantly to the events
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References
- Anwar, C. (2004). Studi Peristiwa Reaksi Pasar Terhadap Pemilihan Umum Tanggal 5 April 2004 Pada Bursa Efek Jakarta. Universitas Gunadarma Jakarta, 9(2), 98-107.
- BBC News Indonesia. (2024). MK Tolak Seluruh Gugatan Sengketa Pilpres 2024. Dipetik August 20, 2024, dari BBC News Indonesia Website: https://www.bbc.com/indonesia/articles/c0kl1jwkr2ko
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- Komisi Pemelihan Umum. (2023). KPU Tetapkan Tiga Pasangan Calon Presiden dan Wakil Presiden Pemilu 2024. Dipetik August 18, 2024, dari Website Komisi Pemilihan Umum: https://www.kpu.go.id/berita/baca/12081/kpu-tetapkan-tiga-pasangan-calon-presiden-dan-wakil-presiden-pemilu-2024
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- Mankiw, G. (2017). Principles of Microeconomics (8th ed.). Boston: Cengage Learning.
- Sadeghzadeh, K. (2018). The effects of microeconomic factors on the stock market: A panel for the stock exchange in Istanbul ARDL analysis. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 25(3), 113-134.
- Sihotang, E. M., & Mekel, P. A. (2015). Reaksi pasar modal terhadap pemilihan umum presiden tanggal 9 Juli 2014 di Indonesia: Studi di perusahaan konstruksi, infrastruktur, dan utilitas pada BEI, Jakarta. Jurnal EMBA, 3(1), 951-960. doi:10.35794/emba.3.1.2015.7800
- Smart, S. B., Gitman, L. J., & Joehnk, M. D. (2017). Fundamentals of Investing (Global Edition) (13th ed.). Essex: Pearson Learning.
- Sukesti, F., Ghozali, I., Fuad, F., Amasyhari, A. K., & Nurcahyono, N. (2021). Factors affecting the stock price: The role of firm performance. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(2), 165-173. doi:10.13106/jafeb.2021.vol8.no2.0165
- Suryawijaya, M. A., & Setiawan, F. A. (1998). Reaksi pasar modal Indonesia terhadap peristiwa politik dalam negeri: Event studi pada peristiwa 27 Juli 1996. Kelola, VII(18), 137-153.
- Suwanna, T. (2012). Impacts of dividend announcement on stock return. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 40, 721-725. doi:10.1016/j.sbspro.2012.03.255
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References
Anwar, C. (2004). Studi Peristiwa Reaksi Pasar Terhadap Pemilihan Umum Tanggal 5 April 2004 Pada Bursa Efek Jakarta. Universitas Gunadarma Jakarta, 9(2), 98-107.
BBC News Indonesia. (2024). MK Tolak Seluruh Gugatan Sengketa Pilpres 2024. Dipetik August 20, 2024, dari BBC News Indonesia Website: https://www.bbc.com/indonesia/articles/c0kl1jwkr2ko
Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. The Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417.
Fendiyani, E. A., Kunthi, D. Z., & Hana, K. F. (2020). Pengaruh pelaksanaan pemilu presiden Indonesia tahun 2019 terhadap return saham JII70 di Indonesia. OECONOMICUS Journal of Economics, 4(2), 146-168. doi:10.15642/oje.2020.4.2.146-168
Flannery, M. J., & Protopapadakis, A. A. (2002). Macroeconomic factors do influence aggregate stock returns. The Review of Financial Studies, 15(3), 751-782. Diambil kembali dari 10.1093/rfs/15.3.751
Gitman, L. J., & Zutter, C. J. (2014). Principles of Managerial Finance - Global Edition (14th ed.). Essex: Pearson.
Hackbarth, D., & Morellec, E. (2008). Stock returns in mergers and acquisiton. The Journal of Finance, 63(3), 1213-1252. doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.2008.01356.x
Komisi Pemelihan Umum. (2023). KPU Tetapkan Tiga Pasangan Calon Presiden dan Wakil Presiden Pemilu 2024. Dipetik August 18, 2024, dari Website Komisi Pemilihan Umum: https://www.kpu.go.id/berita/baca/12081/kpu-tetapkan-tiga-pasangan-calon-presiden-dan-wakil-presiden-pemilu-2024
Komisi Pemilihan Umum. (2024). Kilas Pemilu Tahun 2024. Dipetik August 19, 2024, dari Website Komisi Pemilihan Umum: https://www.kpu.go.id/page/read/1136/kilas-pemilu-tahun-2024
Komisi Pemilihan Umum. (2024). KPU Tetapkan Hasil Pemilu Tahun 2024. Dipetik August 26, 2024, dari Website Komisi Pemilihan Umum: https://www.kpu.go.id/berita/baca/12300/kpu-tetapkan-hasil-pemilu-tahun-2024
Mankiw, G. (2017). Principles of Microeconomics (8th ed.). Boston: Cengage Learning.
Sadeghzadeh, K. (2018). The effects of microeconomic factors on the stock market: A panel for the stock exchange in Istanbul ARDL analysis. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 25(3), 113-134.
Sihotang, E. M., & Mekel, P. A. (2015). Reaksi pasar modal terhadap pemilihan umum presiden tanggal 9 Juli 2014 di Indonesia: Studi di perusahaan konstruksi, infrastruktur, dan utilitas pada BEI, Jakarta. Jurnal EMBA, 3(1), 951-960. doi:10.35794/emba.3.1.2015.7800
Smart, S. B., Gitman, L. J., & Joehnk, M. D. (2017). Fundamentals of Investing (Global Edition) (13th ed.). Essex: Pearson Learning.
Sukesti, F., Ghozali, I., Fuad, F., Amasyhari, A. K., & Nurcahyono, N. (2021). Factors affecting the stock price: The role of firm performance. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(2), 165-173. doi:10.13106/jafeb.2021.vol8.no2.0165
Suryawijaya, M. A., & Setiawan, F. A. (1998). Reaksi pasar modal Indonesia terhadap peristiwa politik dalam negeri: Event studi pada peristiwa 27 Juli 1996. Kelola, VII(18), 137-153.
Suwanna, T. (2012). Impacts of dividend announcement on stock return. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 40, 721-725. doi:10.1016/j.sbspro.2012.03.255
Trisnawarti, F. (2011). Pengaruh peristiwa politik terhadap perubahan harga saham. Pekbis Jurnal, 3(3), 528-535. doi:10.31258/pekbis.3.03.%25p